{"id":757,"date":"2018-03-04T22:30:28","date_gmt":"2018-03-04T22:30:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nortonspeaks.com\/?p=757"},"modified":"2018-03-04T22:30:28","modified_gmt":"2018-03-04T22:30:28","slug":"oil-party-trudeau","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/nortonspeaks.com\/index.php\/2018\/03\/04\/oil-party-trudeau\/","title":{"rendered":"The Oil Party Is Over, Trudeau"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Oil Party Is Over, Trudeau \u2014 Even Canada\u2019s Energy Firms Know It<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Why are corporations more candid about industry\u2019s realities than our prime minister?<\/h4>\n

By\u00a0<\/strong>Ross Belot<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>18 Jul 2017\u00a0|\u00a0iPolitics\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 This column first appeared in the always excellent\u00a0iPolitics<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ross Belot is a retired senior manager with one of Canada\u2019s largest energy companies.<\/p>\n

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The oilsands have become, politically, the gift that keeps on taking. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau\u2019s brand has been badly tarnished by his pro-pipeline stance even as evidence mounts that new pipeline capacity isn\u2019t needed. Alberta Premier Rachel Notley continues to pretend pipelines will bring back the glory days for the province\u2019s energy sector \u2014 even as crude prices languish in the mid $40s due to cheaper U.S. shale oil, and even as OPEC and Russia hold back their own production to shore up prices.<\/p>\n

Headlines like\u00a0this one<\/a>\u00a0don\u2019t bode well for future investment: \u2018Suncor wins favour by ignoring core business of oil sands.\u2019 RBN Energy also reported recently that the differential for Western Canadian Select between Cushing and Edmonton isn\u2019t enough even to pay for the pipeline tariff, indicating surplus capacity headed in that direction must be being sold at a discount. Yet we\u2019re still seeing headlines talking about growing production being transported by rail in future, with no reference to what is actually going on\u00a0today<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Want more proof? Look at\u00a0this<\/a>\u00a0recent Wall Street Journal article: \u2018A New Problem for Keystone XL: Oil Companies Don\u2019t Want It\u2019. The WSJ reports that TransCanada can\u2019t generate enough interest from industry to take on the guarantees necessary to move the line ahead.<\/p>\n

The party\u2019s over. It was over some time ago and the only ones still reluctant to bin the leftovers and turn out the lights are politicians. Trudeau seems especially loathe to confront reality, but energy sector corporations are in the business of making money, not shaping perceptions; they know the world is changing and they have to change with it.<\/p>\n

After being challenged by Greenpeace to amend a prospectus to reflect the costs of meeting Canada\u2019s climate change commitments,\u00a0here\u2019s<\/a>\u00a0what Kinder Morgan came up with:<\/p>\n

\u201c\u2026 a number of initiatives and regulatory changes relating to reducing GHG emissions have been undertaken \u2026 including, for example, the decarbonization targets set forth in the Paris Agreement \u2026 emerging technologies and public opinion has resulted in an increased demand for energy provided from renewable energy sources rather than fossil fuels \u2026 also an overall decrease in the global demand for hydrocarbons. Each of the foregoing could negatively impact the Business directly as well (as) \u2026 the ability of the Business\u2019 customers and shippers to honour their contractual commitments.\u201d<\/p>\n

Investors need to understand these risks, so it\u2019s important that they be told. Canadians need to understand how the energy market is changing as well. So why don\u2019t we get the same degree of candour from our leaders that shareholders get from Kinder Morgan?<\/p>\n

And why isn\u2019t the NEB stating that their approval of these pipelines \u2014 which incorporated the physical and environmental risks involved \u2014 also should have addressed the business risk, the fact that these pipelines may not be required? Instead, the NEB references the forecasts that support pipelines and tells the Senate that the lines are badly needed, period. And Trudeau continues to support pipelines the industry itself admits may not be needed if Canada meets its commitments under the Paris climate change accord \u2014 an agreement Trudeau has been vocal in supporting around the world.<\/p>\n

Make no mistake: The industry in in rapid retreat from future oilsands investment. There hasn\u2019t been a major project sanctioned since 2014. Sure, there\u2019s been bold talk of improving technology to drive new oilsands projects. But here\u2019s where I go back to the words of Suncor CEO Steve Williams from just a few months ago: \u201cMining investments are coming to an end, not just for Suncor but for the industry, I believe, for a considerable period, probably in excess of 10 years \u2026 I want to be equally clear: we have no plans to be going ahead with major capital investment in either mining or in situ in the foreseeable future.\u201d<\/p>\n

Against this backdrop, the new NDP government in B.C. has a pact with the Green Party to \u201cimmediately employ every tool available to the new government to stop the expansion of the Kinder Morgan pipeline, the seven-fold increase in tanker traffic on our coast and the transportation of raw bitumen through our province.\u201d Does Premier-designate John Horgan really mean this? In a recent\u00a0piece<\/a>\u00a0in the Globe and Mail, Gary Mason suggests that Horgan is going to see if the court challenges do the job for him \u2014 that he really doesn\u2019t mean what\u2019s written in the pact with the Greens.<\/p>\n

If true, that\u2019s a mistake on Horgan\u2019s part. In a minority government situation, the BC NDP needs to be visible on the right side of environmental issues if it wants to differentiate itself from the BC Liberals. Christy Clark tried an abrupt reversal towards the end of the recent provincial election campaign, embracing a ban on coal exports as a way to fight climate change. This reversal continued with the recent throne speech in which she vowed to increase the carbon tax after refusing to do so previously. Clark can spot the obvious: British Columbians want real action on climate change, instead of more talk. The NDP needs to deliver.<\/p>\n

For the Trudeau Liberals, the B.C. election offered a warning. They can\u2019t carry on promoting fossil fuel development while paying lip service to climate change action. Voters see through the act now: They know that growing oilsands and meeting our Paris commitments are mutually contradictory goals. Trudeau has thrown his B.C. MPs under the bus with his quixotic support for boosting fossil fuel development through building pipelines. How can he turn things around as he moves into the second half of his mandate?<\/p>\n

The party\u2019s over \u2026 but Trudeau can\u2019t seem to bring himself to leave.\u00a0Read more:\u00a0Energy<\/a>,\u00a0Federal Politics<\/a>,\u00a0BC Politics<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Oil Party Is Over, Trudeau \u2014 Even Canada\u2019s Energy Firms Know It Why are corporations more candid about industry\u2019s realities than our prime minister? By\u00a0Ross Belot\u00a018 Jul 2017\u00a0|\u00a0iPolitics\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 This column first appeared in the always excellent\u00a0iPolitics. Ross Belot is a retired senior manager with one of Canada\u2019s…","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[127,69,68,70,66,126,33],"class_list":["entry","author-larrynorton","post-757","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-alberta-politics","tag-bc-politics","tag-energy","tag-environment","tag-health","tag-oil-sands","tag-politics","no-post-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p8bppg-cd","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/nortonspeaks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/757","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/nortonspeaks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/nortonspeaks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/nortonspeaks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/nortonspeaks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=757"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/nortonspeaks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/757\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":758,"href":"http:\/\/nortonspeaks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/757\/revisions\/758"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/nortonspeaks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/nortonspeaks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/nortonspeaks.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}